Baseball Betting and Regression to the Mean

In the baseball season, you will often see a team or a player that has outperformed what you expected. This can be especially powerful with pitchers. There are often times when pitchers get off to very hot starts during the early part of the year. You have to be careful not to start overvaluing those pitchers with your baseball betting strategy. This is because regression to the mean will almost always take place. What is regression to the mean and why is it so important?

The principle essentially says that players are most likely to regress back to their career norms unless they have undergone some sort of change in skill set. Unless there has been a tangible change in their skills, the player will likely not be able to keep up the level of production that they have been putting up during the early part of the year. Once you understand this, you can avoid the common mistake that often plagues a young baseball sports bettor. Baseball betting is much easier when you recognize that players will almost always regress.